So, let’s get this out of the way: there are 12 NFL teams still waiting for their first-ever Super Bowl win, and five of them are in this year’s playoffs. That’s a lot of uncharted territory, a lot of dry-erase boards filled with “This is Our Year!” slogans, and frankly, a lot of fanbases that deserve something other than heartbreak for a change.
This year, we’ve got the Bills, Chargers, Texans, Lions, and Vikings all looking to break that cursed Lombardi drought. Some have been waiting for decades (hi, Bills fans); others (cough Texans) have never even sniffed the Super Bowl. And honestly? This might be the best shot for at least one of them to pull it off. But which one? Let’s dig into Wild Card Weekend and see who’s staying alive.
No. 5 L.A. Chargers at No. 4 Houston Texans
It’s the annual Texans-in-the-4:30-slot game, and if you’re not weirdly sentimental about that, are you even an NFL fan? The Texans have owned this time slot like Carson Daly owned MTV in the early 2000s. But this year, there’s a twist: it’s the Nickelodeon game. Slime zones, Spongebob graphics, and a chance for the Chargers to teach kids a new word—Chargering.
The Texans are here thanks to a surprisingly solid rookie campaign from C.J. Stroud, but Stroud’s track record against winning teams (1-5) doesn’t inspire confidence. The Chargers, on the other hand, are still haunted by their meltdown against the Jaguars last postseason. If they lose, “Chargering” might officially be added to the dictionary.
The Pick: Chargers 27, Texans 20. Harbaugh’s ground-and-pound style gives them just enough to edge out Houston.
No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 3 Baltimore Ravens
This one feels like the ultimate coin flip. On one hand, you’ve got the Steelers, who’ve stumbled into the playoffs like someone who forgot their wallet at the bar and somehow talked their way back in. On the other, you’ve got the Ravens, who turn into a pumpkin every January. Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP, but he’s 2-4 in the playoffs, and the Ravens average a measly 16 points per postseason game with him at QB.
The Steelers have been a mess for weeks, but Mike Tomlin vs. John Harbaugh in the playoffs? That’s must-see TV. It’ll be close, but I’m rolling with Baltimore’s defense to bail them out.
The Pick: Ravens 23, Steelers 20. Barely.
No. 7 Denver Broncos at No. 2 Buffalo Bills
Can we just take a moment to appreciate how far the Broncos have come? A rookie quarterback, a first-year head coach, and somehow they’ve clawed their way into the playoffs. But now they’ve got to head to Buffalo, and let’s just say Mission: Impossible might have been a better movie title than a game plan here.
The Bills, led by Josh Allen, are perennial contenders these days. And while their own Super Bowl drought is painful, it feels less “long-suffering fanbase” and more “these guys are due.” Denver’s defense could keep this close, but Bo Nix, a rookie QB making his first playoff start? Against Sean McDermott’s defense? Yeah, no.
The Pick: Bills 24, Broncos 17. Close, but Buffalo pulls away late.
No. 7 Green Bay Packers at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay’s season has been held together with duct tape and vibes. They limp into Philly missing key players, and oh yeah, their QB can’t feel his throwing hand. Not ideal! Meanwhile, the Eagles are well-rested and playing at home, where they’ve won seven straight.
This game will likely come down to the run game: Saquon Barkley vs. Josh Jacobs. Barkley cracked the 2,000-yard mark this season (wild), but history isn’t kind to teams with a 2,000-yard rusher. Jacobs is no slouch, though, and if the Packers can control the clock, they might have a shot.
The Pick: Eagles 27, Packers 24 (if Jalen Hurts plays). If he’s out, flip the score: Packers 23, Eagles 20. Seriously.
No. 5 Minnesota Vikings at No. 4 L.A. Rams
Let’s talk curses. The Vikings might be the most snakebitten franchise in NFL history. Four Super Bowl losses. The infamous “Wide Left” in 1998. Blair Walsh’s playoff choke job in 2015. And now? They’re the first 14-3 team ever to start the playoffs on the road.
This matchup feels cruel. The Vikings’ reward for a great season is a date with the Rams, one of only two teams to beat them all year. Oh, and that loss came in L.A. with a rested Matthew Stafford throwing darts against a shaky Vikings secondary. Good luck, Minnesota.
The Pick: Rams 26, Vikings 23. The curse lives on.
The Big Question: Who Has the Best Shot?
Of the five Lombardi-less teams, the Bills feel like the most complete package. Josh Allen’s playoff experience, combined with a strong roster, gives them the best chance to make a deep run. The Lions also have a bye, and their scrappy underdog energy is giving me Eagles-2017 vibes.
But for now, it’s one game at a time. Wild Card Weekend is where dreams live or die—and, for some teams, where curses live on forever. Let’s see who survives.
P.S. If you’re betting on these games, don’t come crying to me when the Chargers blow a 24-point lead. I warned you.
P.P.S. Still trying to figure out how the Broncos are back in the playoffs. Is Sean Payton a wizard? Asking for a friend.
P.P.P.S. Go Bills.